Estimated price stock market returns in oil exporting countries

The IEA released highlights for the December Oil Market report in mid December. I have used information from the November report and assumed OPEC crude output will be I have also used the demand estimates from the December highlights.

Based on these assumptions World Supply from the first quarter of to the fourth quarter of is greater than demand by a total of million barrels. In other words, World crude stocks should be million barrels more than the Dec level at the end ofif the supply and demand estimate presented is correct.

Also the fourth quarter demand estimate is 1. If that draw on stocks continues into then World crude stocks would fall to zero by mid June Higher oil prices by is likely to result in higher FSU and OPEC output.

In the 2 following posts, quotas for each country in the November agreement are shown compared to historic production. Init will also be interesting to see how Trump will handle the issues around the South China Sea. I like your posts Matt. Especially the ones on Egypts play by play as it gets flushed down he hopper. Do you have any suggestions as to how Mexico might play out as it hits the cliff?

Mexico is catching a lot of migrants from points south. Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador are failed states. Mexico is a pressure cooker with no release valve. Regarding your to chart: After the Jean Laherrere post on global reserves I had a go at predicting a future supply trajectory myself. It is based on Gb developed declining at 4.

That gives Gb reserves remaining — about what he had. Extra heavy oil is given as 30 kbpd coming on stream every year until representing the drop off in tar sands development and probable falls in Venezuela production, and then kbpd added for every year after. As the projects take about 5 years to complete this would represent about 8 in development at any one time, but also requiring projects for 3 or 4 upgraders, 1 or 2 pipelines and a new refinery to be ongoing in parallel.

After that I just made reasonable guesses, assuming an extra three-year development time from discoveries for ne fields. Apart from added renewables and nuclear, and increasing efficiencies there will be a turn to gas if there is sufficient easily available, a loss in demand from recession depression in a lot of places I suspectand I think also an inevitable turn back to coal maybe with another push to in-situ gasification.

My non-oil projections for growth of electric cars — which are the key technology displacing oil usage. I believe since they are superior technology, they are essentially production-limited. I believe price issues will be automatically addressed by economies of scale as production increases. So my production projections see a big increase in electric car sales in thanks to models we already know about.

I believe the high sales in cause much, much more capitalwhich causes much more investment by car companies. This takes years to pay off. So I see a huge increase in production and therefore sales in the time range. This is still well before market saturation is reached. Before sometime in the range, we can expect petroleum demand to remain solid.

But after that, demand will be dropping faster than the natural drop in supply. There will be no new drilling, or at least not profitably. With a three-year project time, the glut will remain brutal for three years afterwards as old projects go online. At that point, low oil prices become the determining factor in the size of reserves. High-priced producers go bankrupt and shut down.

Refineries, now with excess capacity, go bankrupt and shut down. Refineries have to retool to optimize for aircraft kerosene production instead of gasoline production. Thanks for breaking out the different production sources. Zero available exports by !

When oil prices rise in and there will be increased output from Russia and OPEC, in my view. A lot of output in those nations has relatively short time for development, they just need to develop already discovered reserves, there will also be some increase in US LTO output and Canadian oil sands output with higher oil prices.

Dennis — can you say what those resources are — i. I can only think of Iran as a possible source — but most of their stuff is gas flood, that needs big compressors to provide the injected gas — it is impossible to go through a design, procurement and start-up cycle on such systems in under 24 months. There are combined cuts of 1. That production from OPEC and Russia can be brought online in June Also infill drilling will increase in other nations as oil prices increase.

My scenario is pretty conservative relative to IEA and EIA Outlooks. The IEA and EIA do have this information and their future outlooks are quite a bit more optimistic than what I have presented. I believe that those estimates are too optimistic and yours may be too pessimistic. A problem with your analysis is that you seem to assume no reserve growth just as Jean Laherrere does. I believe an assumption of no future reserve growth leads to too pessimistic an outlook.

Perhaps that is too optimistic, time will tell. Also I assume LTO resources in the US are only about 40 to 50 Gb, possibly too optimistic, but less so than the EIA.

The Extra Heavy XH Oil Scenario is in the chart below. The extra heavy XH output scenario above assumes Gb of ultimately recoverable resources from XH oil. The Overnighters Desperate, broken men chase their dreams and run from their demons in the North Dakota oil fields. A local Pastor risks everything to help them. An observational, near-invisible presence, he fills the frame with the faces of economic deprivation and bad choices, neither judging nor sugarcoating.

What emerges is a blue-collar meditation on the meaning of community and the imperative of compassion. Another year; another section of the Russian-roulette rollercoaster ride… where corkscrews could mean missing rivets…. A ten percent drop in oil production over 12 years appears quite manageable. All we need is a twenty percent efficiency gain in that time to handle it easily.

It will help push EV production. Peak oil is not going to be that big a problem over the next decade or two, assuming Dennis and other guys who think like him are right in predicting a slow gradual decline in production.

If the price of batteries remains considerably higher than expected, and gasoline gets to be REALLY expensive, then plug in hybrids with as little as twenty to thirty mile electric range will probably sell almost as well as ice water in hell. Somebody who travels a lot will hopefully tell us how much it takes to ride the subways and buses in various big cities these days.

The bright side of high shipping costs is that such costs create a powerful incentive for every body from the producer to the final consumer to produce, distribute, sell and buy lighter and or more durable goods. That sort of good can easily and economically be produced locally almost anywhere.

This leads to the conclusion that since costs are basically just passed along, in a competitive industry, we would often be better off to pay twice as much to the manufacturerwhile seeing the retail price of the product go up by much LESS than half, if distribution and sales are efficient.

Really good tools, good furniture, and good clothing LAST. Twice as much good solid oak and chestnut put into this furniture fifty to seventy five years ago has prevented our needing new cheap replacement furniture at least twice and likely three times.

I bought a new automobile radiator over the net a few weeks back for seventy bucks less than I could get it at the local auto parts chain store, but from the SAME COMPANY. By adding a gallon of antifreeze and a quart of special oil to put the total order over a hundred bucks, I got free shipping. The UPS truck dropped my radiator,antifreeze and oil off the very next morning, saving me a twenty five mile round trip to town.

Effect of Oil Price on the Stock Market Return and Volatility in Six Major Oil Exporting Countries - Universiti Putra Malaysia Institutional Repository

The radiator was not in stock in the store, so I would have had to wait for it to be delivered THERE the next day anyway. Disruption saved me about fifty bucks in cash, a twenty five mile round trip to town, which takes at best over an hour, the wear and tear on my truck, the gasoline, etc, and for a bonus I got a gallon of antifreeze and a quart of special lube.

The hundred mpg car is coming too, unless batteries get cheap enough fast enough to prevent it from being built and sold. IF it arrives it will be very low, very narrow, very light, with fore and aft seating rather than side by side seating. Europe seems to have a lot of efficient small diesel cars. A little hypermiling or just gong easy on the throttle helps a lot. Always drive downwind too. Please note that diesel is denser than gasoline with more CO2 emissions to match and that European efficiency ratings are far less realistic than EPA ratings.

There is quite a big market for electric vehicles, however. The market is for delivery vans and utility vehicles in big crowded cities with air pollution issues.

That is why China and Europe are leading the way. Innovation seeps into markets by occupying niches and spreading from there. That is why Tesla was successful. They figured out that some rich people would pay a premium for an high performance electric car. It was also smart marketing.

If EVs are what the rich drive, then those who aspire to being rich will be more inclined to buy them. You can see how the concept works with sporting goods. A new technology comes out and at first it is only sold in boutique stores and for a high price.

The rich and trendy want it first and they want the best and they will pay for it to reflect the status they believe they deserve.

Rule of thumb in some consumer products: Books did, which is why Amazon was able to kill the brick-and-mortar bookstore market so fast.

Amazon does not take the same cut as the old wholesalers did, they take a smaller cut. Why am I not surprised that comment came from the left coast? The bigger the fool and lowlife you make yourself out to be, the more inclined the reader will be to consider my arguments. My goal is to make my point about recent and future D party history.

The caravan passes on. The dog continues to bark, convinced he scared it away. She wears flip flops. I suppose they compliment her Chairman Mao pantsuits, but I am no authority on fancy dress of the sort mandatory in Holly Wood. Bush administration, Congress passed a bill called the Secure Fence Act, which mandated double-layer fencing from San Diego to the southern tip of Texas. Inthrough the appropriations process, the language was amended to certify miles of fencing to be required, at the discretion of the Department of Homeland Security.

Twenty-six Senate Democrats voted for the measure, including Chuck Schumer, Dianne Feinstein, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. Feinstein, California Democrat, told the Los Angeles Daily News at the time. Schumer praised the Secure Fence Act for making the U. So help me Sky Daddy, the anointed and entitled and properly dressed PRADA, Italian shoes, English suits delegates whose six figure and up pocket money donations paid for the convention would be MORTIFIED, they would DIE of embarrassment, if by some ghastly accident an actual union worker, or truck driver, or farmer or welder or carpenter were to sit down beside them.

The MORE insults you aim at me, the more inclined thinking readers will be to consider MY arguments. The D party as a whole is light years ahead of the R party on the one issue that outweighs all other issues combined- protecting the environment. The most precious non human thing in the world, to me, is my little corner of the natural world.

I WANT the D party to control Washington. I want the environment protected, not only where I live but every where else as well. I hereby ask Dennis to take delete this remarkso please no replies to make it easy. It would have been better in the other thread. OPEC and some non-OPEC nations are promising a production cut. I am skeptical of those cuts myself but I definitely do not see the dramatic increase in production that you are predicting for and But if your production prediction is correct then we are in for a price collapse.

That would cause another decline in rigs and a decline production…. We can have an increase in price only if we have a decrease in production. But if we have an increase in production then we must have a corresponding decrease in price. Of course it is possible to have an increase in both price and production. But that would only be possible if we have a dramatic increase in demand.

It would mean the internal combustion engine makes a comeback and completely clears out the current glut in supply. At any rate I would be interested in your price prediction and how you square that with your current production increase in and The delay time from project start to finish is what causes market cycles. I think you know this. Demand reductions from the substitution effect set a price the substitution price where above that price, instead of production increasing, demand decreases permanently.

However, it is limited by the production capacity of electric cars, which is very low right now. So it basically only becomes visible in the oil markets when the production capacity of electric cars per year is high enough to displace more oil than the natural decline rate of the fields. Nobody knows exactly when that will happen but I am guessing sometime between and The cuts will be temporary for the first 6 months ofthen output will increase.

The scenario is a rough guess. Not really a big increase, and output is less than I will refrain from oil price guesses. Supply will increase enough to meet demand at the prevailing market price. Generally these will be higher than today. Anyone who can successfully predict market cycles in advance would be very wealthy, I am not that person. Oil is a particularly tricky industry because of wars, OPEC, etc.

In Charles Maxwell predicted a peak in world oil production by doing nothing more than adding 50 years to to peak in world oil discovery. Maybe it was just luck, but his prediction seems to have panned out better than most predictions I recall from On the other hand, his prediction for prices was way off. I believe that the peak of discovery fell in the five-year interval between and So if you took it at, say,and then you added 50 years, you would get to We think that the peak in production will actually occur in the period to And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use or That would suggest that aroundwe will hit a near-plateau of production around the world, and we will hold it for maybe four or five years.

On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving down. Bywe should be headed in a downward direction for oil output in the world each year instead of an upward direction, as we are today. After a certain point, instead of using anthracite, people used substitutes.

There are always substitutes. The substitutes could be new technologies that accomplish the same goals using different energy sources entirely or lifestyle changes that eliminate energy needs. People can walk and bike rather than drive. And do it willingly because it is healthier for them. Already we are seeing how mobile devices have changed socializing among youth. Meeting at a place to hang out is no longer so important to them because they are in touch constantly whether or not they are in the same physical space.

Famine is bad, but changing how and what we eat could be a plus. Much of the rest is exported. Only a tiny fraction of the national corn crop is directly used for food for Americans, much of that for high-fructose corn syrup. The Economic and Environmental Costs of Wasted Food — The New York Times: The best substitute for liquid fuel in America is sensible city planning.

From this year forward you have demand outstripping supply. In my world that means increasing prices. Increasing fuel prices make the serfs unhappy. Probably should buy pitchfork futures. SW, just curious but what do you think will cause this turnaround. That is from the current glut to demand outstripping supply. US storage is near its all time high and OECD storage is million barrels above its 5 year average. IEA Oil Market Report. OECD commercial inventories fell in October for the third month in a row.

They have drawn 75 mb since reaching a historical high in July, but remain mb above the five-year average. Product stocks have fallen twice as quickly as crude during that period.

Preliminary data show stocks falling further across the OECD in November. How much confidence do we have on oil storage accounting?

According to Art Berman much of it is unaccounted for oil. Looks like a very good way to manipulate oil prices. My take is that the powers of the world are very much afraid of what a new global recession could do to the shenanigans they have been running at the Central Banks to keep the system from imploding and are very much decided to do everything on their power to prevent a new global recession, and a very important part of it is to keep oil price affordable to prevent the economy from stalling.

Unaccounted for oil could be the tool to do that. We have only the USA and a wild ass guess at OECD storage. We have nothing for Eastern Europe, Africa or Asia. And when that happens the price very quickly reverts to what the actual supply and demand dictates. But there is not and it does not. This is a presentation by Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects a few months ago. She is claiming the only place in the world we are getting builds is in the U.

Not sure where they are getting their information. Our post was NOT about conspiracy theories. It has number crunching on the statistical fact that there is a huge discrepancy between US crude oil production, imports, exports and refinery intakes. Storage Filling Up with Unaccounted-For Oil http: I know the article said nothing about intentional overreporting of crude oil stocks.

It just occurred to me that if intentional it could have a clear effect on oil prices. That USA is the only one reporting crude oil stocks makes it easier to manipulate them, not harder. How do we know that there is a huge global excess in crude oil?

We know there is some excess from multiple sources, but we only know that there is a large excess from USA reported oil storage. Where is that large excess in USA crude oil storage coming from? I think the situation demands an explanation as large unaccounted-for oil is a new phenomenon that started when oil prices were very high. When the IEA and all other oil market observers compare current storage levels with 5-year average they miss two important things:.

Thus, according to the IEA, global oil demand in should average The first are crude and product inventories. They are indeed above 5-year average. The second is OPEC spare capacity, which is well below historical averages. But, hey, thanks for the incredibly informative piece from Exxon which includes these shocking insights? The whole piece is just ridiculous. The flow of logic is basically: But lots of colorful charts and it all make sense.

Trump's Cabinet Pick Has a Exxon Stock Problem Fortune. I have bought energy stocks. Massive investment in Tesla, for instance. Also some solar companies. I distinguish investing, which is long-term, from short-term speculation, where you can still make money trading even bankrupt companies like Peabody Coal. Best of luck with that. You would be wise to get out before the oil business collapses.

I bet you that by ExxonMobil will declare bankruptcy. Wanna take the other side of the bet? Go for it, you know you want to. Renewables such as wind and solar are much better buys going forward.

Unless you are doing very short term investing, buying fossil fuel energy is a good way to lose your shirt. As an example Saudi Arabia will be completely broke in a decade if they stay on the fossil fuel path. Because Texas Tea keeps touting oil-related stocks, I keep assuming what he is actually trying to do is to sell stocks. Either he is trying to generate investment in companies he owns or represents, or he wants to sell stocks he already owns and is hoping to raise the price before he does.

Generally anyone who urges you to buy stocks in a particular company or industry has an ulterior motive. I know lots of people who buy stocks, commodities, and bonds; who sell stocks, commodities, and bonds; who finance companies, etc. I know how the game is played. Tea, I seldom agree with you, but this one I think you got right. Oil is going up and with it so will good producing companies that have been bleeding red ink. There are a lot that are undervalued by 50 to percent and some even more.

Which would strongly promote alternatives. But you got to be in the game to win. This includes the ExxonMobil prediction that energy use efficiency will double figure 4. The world population will increase from 7. World GDP will effectively double by Living standards will rise dramatically, especially in the developing world. Natural gas consumption will increase 54 quadrillion BTUs by Nuclear and renewables will increase 24 and 20 quadrillion BTUs, respectively.

The energy mix will remain about the same as today figure 5 and Table 1. Rising electricity demand will drive the growth in global energy between now and The increase in the number of homes with electricity, industrialization of the developing world and our increasingly digital and plugged-in lifestyles will drive this growth. Half of global electricity demand is from industrial activity; thus good jobs can be lost if electricity costs are too high.

Jobs will move to locations where electricity is cheap, an example is the new Voestalpine steel plant in Corpus Christi, Texas. The developing world will account for the largest increases. Carbon dioxide emissions will increase, at least until Personally I think global economic growth will slow and maybe even contractso I think oil consumption will also go down. FACTBOX-Why the shift to electric cars may surprise oil groups.

Thanks for that link. Most of the Exxon and Chevron, and so on execs are just incapable of conceiving, mentally, of a future where oil is not wanted. Check out the tables below, courtesy of Haynes And Boone, for a detailed list as of Dec. The End Of The Oil And Gas Bankruptcy Wave OilPrice.

Inthe U. Oil firms and carmakers diverge in costly debate Reuters: In that case, consumers largely skipped use of the established technology — fixed land lines — and went straight to the latest technology — mobile phones. Indeed, some in the auto industry think emerging markets could well outpace some rich countries in adopting EVs.

This plant has a couple of Marcellus gas wells right on the property that produce all the heat and electricity needed. Cabot is directly supplying the gas to some to bypass pipeline constraints while offering exceptionally economical fuel to these nearby generators.

An industrial renaissance is in the early stages up that way due to the massive supply of hydrocarbons. This certainly reinforces the idea that natural gas, not coal, will be the bigger contributor to electricity generation. Now if it continues to be true that large electricity users move to where the cheapest electricity is, then we should see shifts if solar and wind also contribute to lowering costs.

Fascinating how the fuel mix changes, as well as electricity pricing, when temperatures drop. Seems like natgas fueled is flat diverting for heating? This time it should have been released in free public access site on December Today is January 2nd, and still no free OMR.

The November issue was also delayed by some 3 days. That never happened before. A question for the esteemed panel: Ive heard that Mexico flipped from being a net exporter of petroleum products to a net importer of petroleum products in early According to the Energy Export Databrowser they were still exporting aboutbpd in It is entirely possible that export dropped past zero in and they became a net importer.

However I guess we will just have to wait until we have the total data. But if anyone else has any further data I would love to hear it. Economies fluctuate but without a proper war, pop growth just marches on. Agreed, that K bpd could be erased. This is VERY important stuff. Oil flow from Mexico or Canada to the US is hard to interdict, unlike tankers to China.

As US import supply gets more vulnerable. I had read somewhere that the value of imported refined products was near to equaling the value of their exported crude. It would be interesting to compare the money they earn exporting crude to the money they spend 1 minute binary option vic strategy refined products.

Either way, Mexico is on the brink. In fact it may already be so. The President of the country seems to be not much more than the Mayor of the capital. Very few people realize that the Pentagon a year or two ago had Mexico pegged as one of the three countries in the world most likely to degenerate to failed state status, unless I am badly mistaken.

I think Mexico needs to build a new refinery of modernize existing refining capacity. That would solve the problem of rising product imports. When you gotta have DIP money, you gotta have DIP money. In in total, output reached It is interesting that actual monthly-average output in October was OPEC and 11 non-OPEC countries agreed to cut output for nifty futures and options six-months period starting January 1stand nothing was said if and how this deal will be prolonged for the second half of the year.

For as a whole, the Russian energy ministry is sticking to its oil production forecast of million tons, or According to a quote in Reuters, the IEA also expects Russian oil production to rise in the second half of the year: He just has to do without. Two other non-OPEC countries where the cuts should be real are Oman and Kazakhstan, as they were also expected to increase output.

In most other non-OPEC countries, including Mexico and Azerbaijan, output reduction will simply match natural declines. There is no numbers for each year, particularly for I would say that at least the aggregate numbers from a forecast issued 10 years ago look surprisingly good:. Apparently, the EIA has found a domestic oil source significantly better than Alaska, and production from it will be starting soon. We now know that this domestic source was LTO, and actual U. US total oil production: EIA IEO projections source: The EIA forecast from must also be viewed in light of their price prediction.

Also consider the message they were sending the time when there was a supply crunch imminent, seriously threatening the world economy.

Move along, nothing to see make money selling silver bullion, everything will be back to normal. What supply crunch was imminent in ?

Are you getting any inquiries from media. Make money doing genealogy research business media covering these Shale Cos? I would hope they are beginning to compare the ACTUAL production vs the touted production from 4,5 and 6 years ago. Not from the media no.

Have you seen the comments from Jim Brooker? I think he did a very nice anzac day opening hours new zealand at comparing claims with actuals for Pioneer, and Bonanza Creek, in the comments section of my last US post.

I have seen those comments. Good discussions on your site between actual producers and Engineers. Has there been a country before in which oil and gas production has stopped?

Paywall but limited number of articles free: Maersk Oil COO Martin Rune Pedersen said: The Tyra facilities are approaching the end of their operational life, and together with our partners in DUC we have assessed solutions for safe decommissioning and possible rebuilding of the Tyra facilities. As I recall the seafloor had been subsiding as the reservoir com converter currency currency dollar exchange foreign forex gruppo11.net has been reduced.

Jacking up existing facilities or rebuilding would be expensive for the remaining gas resource. I think the hub receives associated gas from some oil fields which will need to be rerouted as part of the decommissioning. Yes, but it seems that in the past these holidays were much shorter. And delays were no more than 1 or 2 days. And there was no 3-day delays forex macd November.

Global oil demand growth remains steady, despite all the talk about EVs, renewables and efficiency gains. According to the IEA estimate, oil demand was up 1.

Growth in is now seen homemade chocolate covered macadamia nuts 1. Both numbers are above long-term average stock market decline chart increase of 1.

From to global demand is projected to increase by IEA Oil Market Report December ; Annual Statistical Supplement In the past several years, the general trend in short and medium-term global demand forecasts revisions was upward. The burger king option stockport closed recent IEA forecast for from the Oil Market Report December is 0.

Much depends on OPEC policy, as we are once again seeing. Oil prices are indeed woodstock adoption louisville to forecast. And the EIA had underestimated future oil prices in its International Energy Outlook But not by much. Price assumptions in the IEO are for the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.

And these are REAL prices in dollars. The EIA provides annual, monthly and weekly-average prices for imported oil both in nominal and real US CPI-adjusted terms. Real prices are in dollars, but it is easy to re-calculated those numbers in dollars. Price risk management through hedging is one of the most important aspects of managing an independent upstream oil and gas company. Also a difficult one. In hindsight this was one of the biggest blunders we made. We maybe are continuing to make it?

Yes, an increased aging population and a shrinking working population is going to impact oil consumption. Those trends are happening in developed countries, so our need for oil will go down. If developing countries adopt EVs for non-vehicle owners who want vehicles, their use of oil may not mirror demand growth that was the pattern in the US with the widespread adoption stock market lesson plans for middle school ICEs.

Is peak oil demand in sight? Byabout 25 percent of the population of developed economies, including China, will be 65 or older—this means a lower proportion of workers in the total population.

This relatively shrinking labor force will lead to a global macroeconomic downshift. Assuming current trends continue, with no unexpected uptick in productivity, MGI expects growth in GDP to be 40 percent lower during the next 50 years compared with the previous half century. Additionally, the structure of GDP growth is shifting toward services. At the same time, the surge of energy-intensive industrialization that we have seen in China during the past decades geneva forex event facebook likely not be replicated elsewhere.

That means a greater share of global GDP will be driven by services, which are less energy stock struts with aftermarket springs. In the global demand chart that Alex posted, demand was down in andso perhaps as the global economy slows, and even degrows, demand will decrease, too. And the drop in global demand was followed by record compensatory growth of 3. So the question might be: Which will come first, the decline in demand or the decline in supply?

If everything goes smoothly, they would decline simultaneously, which would cause the least disruption. Much more likely to see episodes of big mismatch, with resultant economic chaos here and there. And the overproduction will keep prices too low to adequately support the industry. Forex sgd hkd was a time when there was enough land and natural resources that you took everything you could from one area and then relocated.

But those unexploited frontiers are mostly gone. And I would add to your comment about the producers, that the consumers of energy are partying like the its early on Friday eve. People get on a plane to fly for trivial purpose, and drive around a circular track over and over. Side comment- Maybe in the future Artificial Intelligence in the form of robots will ration human access to energy.

I think we see overproduction, low prices and then a market crash with a switch to substitutes. Thankfully there are readily available substitutes for oil at reasonable prices right now.

Not so much for water: And for food, really, not at all. Or you substitute other energy sources such as electricity produced with wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power for oil and consume less oil. I know you seem to think the war option is best, hopefully those with more sanity will prevail and birth rates and energy consumption will decrease over time making world war less likely. The next world war may be the last world war and might reduce population by much more than 1 billion, maybe 5 or 6 billion.

You seem to think this is a good idea, to me that sounds insane. Not to mention that any war that kills BILLIONS of people will also greatly damage the capacity of forex dnevna analiza planet to support the survivors. How fracking ignited the American Energy Revolution and how do you get unlimited money on gran turismo 5 the world.

During 3Q16, for the first time in its history, the sector reached free cash flow neutrality. In other words, after more two years of very difficult times, the US shale business model seems on a much more sustainable path. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen whether companies can remain cash flow positive when the industry scales up activity and capital spending and as upward pressure on costs once again takes hold.

Is interest expense included in epilot internet make money t calculations? I am sure reduction of debt principal is not.

Negative free cashflow means that the company has to borrow money to cover its expenses. Positive free cashflow means that the company can pay down part of its debt or keep free cash on its accounts. Unlike oil majors, which tend to spend a significant part of their cash on dividends and repurchase of their own shares, U.

The above chart from the IEA monthly report shows that the group of 50 largest shale companies have finally achieved free cash flow neutrality in 3Q, which means their quarterly operating cashflow is roughly equal to the sum of their capex and dividends.

I came to similar conclusions, as the IEA, after looking at 2Q and 3Q results from a few large U. Of course, my sample group was much narrower than 50 companies. The shale oil industry has been in positive cash flow situation since prices got above 40 dollars a barrel.

Sorry, this is a meaningless assessment of a meaningless article. Positive cash flow basis to what extent, exactly? This implies that all wells being drilled by the 50 shale oil companies referenced are now being paid for out of positive cash flow.

If so, at the expense of deleveraging, so what? Give me a percentage of the total 50 shale companies surveyed that paid down debt in and to what extent, please. Last I looked even EOG did not have COH to cover this years maturities. List the 50 and show their losses for 3Q If these shale guys are using cash flow to drill more stinking wells, they are doing so at the expense of deleveraging legacy debt. The marginal price per barrel of shale oil is a meaningless metric now.

All of these guys are up to their asses in debt. Folks have got to let this ridiculous IEA, EIA, SPCA and NCAA bunk go and get planted on earth 7 11 trading hours anzac day this shale oil stuff. Nothing has changed in the past 5 months except that OPEC added 5 dollars a barrel to the bottom line.

I guess our goal every time we have borrowed money to buy an asset, be it an oil lease or otherwise, was to pay down the loan principal to zero.

Currently, in the commodity spaces I am familiar with, most asset values are still high, despite much lower commodity prices grains, oil and natural gas. We looked at a small oil lease recently. It sold for the asking price. In the first quarter of the lease lost money on an operating basis. It was barely cash flow positive for Farmland is the same. Grain prices are down for the third year, yet land is barely off highs. Net cash rental income, after payment of real estate taxes, is 2.

This is pre-income tax returns. I am not smart enough to know what this means, or what one should do in this situation, unfortunately. I will say, however, I believe few now have the goal of buying assets and paying the debt down to zero. It appears commodity assets are now about leverage, churn and other ways to make money from them, besides from the income produced by the assets themselves. Roulette money maker area that I think will only get worse is commodity price volatility.

I read a long article recently about this with regard to grain prices, written by a large, well respected farm management company. This I believe is true for oil and gas too. Unfortunately, the cost to hedge has risen dramatically. I recall buying put options near the market for under a buck a barrel around years ago. AlexS, I do not think operating cash flow is the only metric to look at. However, much may be paid through equity issuance. I sure hope the upstream oil and gas industry is not a microcosm for the whole economy.

This is first pass. Accordingly, the prices of investment products are getting bid up in a bubble. It is best to be out of it before it bursts — sell at the top of the bubble if you can, and switch to something which is selling with less inflated prices.

The other possibility is that it might not have the same bubble behavior: Paying off debt is an option if you have debt. Or insuring yourself against liabilities are all your well capping and clean-shutdown nonstatutory stock option taxes prepaid? That sort of thing. Hey SS, I remember some time back having a discussion with you about the possibilities of running stripper well pumps using renewables, solar pv in particular.

Something interesting popped up in this article I linked to in the non-petroleum thread that is just as pertinent to this discussion:. How will Rick Perry run the Department of Energy? It was an economic approach instead of a mandate. As governor, Perry followed through on predecessor George W. The UAE is now consistently running many of their oil pumps with solar panels, apparently.

Negative electricity prices are caused primarily by the subsidies to various forms of power generation. The power generator can bid negative prices down to the subsidy level and still profit.

Without the subsidies, the bidding war would stop at zero. New borrowing can be called a cash influx. Technical analysis of saudi stock market & foreign currencies borrowing improves cash flow over a period measured.

If you define it that way, you can borrow your way to prosperity. Watcher is mostly right. For example, there are only a small minority of companies that use GAAP earnings as their primary earnings measure. In many cases, totally self-serving. With respect to cash flow, each K annual report and Q quarterly report includes a GAAP standardized statement of cash flow. You may not be able to glean the information that you seek from that report, but it is the only one that I would trust.

With respect to oil and gas exploration companies, stock options tax implications canada are 2 different acceptable GAAP standards: Successful efforts expenses dry holes.

Full cost capitalizes them into the pool of depletable costs and expenses them as the reserves are depleted. Say that quality control finds one out of every circuit boards to be defective.

The company does not immediately expense that circuit board. The total manufacturing costs are allocated to the inventory of circuit boards. That becomes a big deal if prices fully recover, because the write-downs are never reinstated. FCF represents the cash that a company is able to generate after spending the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. FCF is an assessment of the amount of cash a company generates after accounting for all capital expenditures.

The excess cash is used to expand production, develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt. Some believe that Wall Street focuses only on earnings while ignoring the real cash that a firm generates. However, it is important to note that negative free cash flow is not bad in itself. If free cash flow is negative, it could be a sign that a company is making large investments.

If these investments earn a high return, the strategy has the potential to pay off in the long run. FCF is a good indicator of the performance of a public company. Many investors base their investment decisions on the free cash generated by a company or its equity price to FCF ratio. The explanation is very simple. Inshale companies were heavily investing, which 1929 stock market charts them to achieve double-digit growth in production and to increase overall U.

But these companies even more sharply reduced their capex. Finally, in 3Q their combined capex was roughly equal to combined operating cash flow. I do not disagree with you that the metrics you play rummy and earn money explaining very well, I might add are very important. However, I assume you agree that balance sheets and estimates of future cash flows are also important to look at.

In reality, all can be reviewed in SEC filings, which are the only numbers that are reliable. Company power point presentations are meant to be promotional material.

Furthermore, FCF neutrality was achieved thanks to lower capex which resulted in declining oil production. That will likely reverse the decline in LTO output. But higher capex will not allow shale companies to achieve significant positive FCF, and hence to start repaying their debt. A more aggressive increase in capex would result again in negative FCF and estimated price stock market returns in oil exporting countries in debt. In my view, a conservative financial and operational strategy, with gradual and modest increases in capex, should allow a moderate growth in LTO production over the next few years without significant increase in debt levels.

And it would have a negative impact on oil prices. Easier said than done. Look at the latest Q for CLR. It seems to me that there would be a lot of questions about their results, especially when you look at their operating cash flow and notice the large impairment charge that is added back, thereby not affecting cash flow from operations negatively.

But they lost that cash almost as surely as if they drilled a dry hole. I believe there were some things pulled to keep PV10 above long term debt in and I expect the same for year end It is reflected in the balance sheet as lower net property and equipment compared with previous period and as lower shareholers equity.

Today's Stock Market News and Analysis - oxicivaru.web.fc2.com

The cost of drilling wells was already accounted as capex. But bnp forex daily are added back in cash flow statement as cash paid for both succesful and dry wells was already included in capex. Alex, thank you for your detailed explanation of free cash flow. After 40 years of operating oil and gas wells I understand the definition very well.

It can indeed be used, as you have said, as a snapshot of financial activity within in a brief period of time. As I have said, and Shallow, I believe, it is of little importance in the grand scheme of things. Its curious to me this intense need for some folks to make predictions about the future. Predicting the role shale oil might play in that future over the next decade, or decades, without understanding the financial condition of those companies extracting it, is a big mistake in my opinion.

The shale oil phenomena has not been paid for yet, nevertheless you and others are counting on it decades thirty years from now. I do not understand that, sorry. Lots of agencies and companies provide outlooks of the future. AlexS — I did not do a good job of trying to point out that I think that you have to look at more info. If you read metric number 3 in this short article, it might be clearer. Also, for the first time, our business-as-usual case includes autonomous-vehicle adoption and car sharing.

If the market penetration of electric, autonomous, and shared vehicles accelerates, oil demand driven by light vehicles could be approximately 3 million barrels lower in than assumed in the business-as-usual case. Oil and gas supply is now falling. The chart below shows pretty clearly why there was a glut: Nothing much to do with demand reduction that I can see. This is the a boom and bust cycle combined with the end of life in a mature basin looks like for the UK — only one new field approval this year to September.

The price at the pump in Europe is approx. Consumption is therefore less responsive inelastic to the international oil market price compared to the USA. Also, Europeans have adapted to this over time and drive smaller and more fuel efficient cars. Several oil producers have cut back on subsidies during make money with scour last couple of years.

This should restrict domestic demand increase. However, given the level of population growth and demographics young people in MENA their domestic consumption is unlikely to reduce significantly slight increase seems more likely.

The only major exporter not there is Russia at 0. Kazakhstan and Iran are legit. KSA and its neighbours use a lot of oil for electricity generation. Russia uses extremely profitable binary options strategy gas, nuclear, hydro and coal.

Just to add information, in Europe, taxes are split in two parts: For gas in Belgium, excise are about 0. So price variations due to oil international prices are attenuated.

Add to these that taxes decreases when oil price increase and increase when oil price decrease. This is a forex trends and profitable patterns to guarantee revenue for the State when oil prices decrease.

It shows that it is possible to produce more gas and oil than the world needs, so is there any value in politicians saying they want policies that increase production? Yes, there is value. The long term predicament has potentially awful implications, and it seems better to prolong the status quo than face the reality that things are changing. Increased production efforts now will result in some additional supply coming online a few years down the road when it will likely be sorely wanted.

Besides, the short term goal is more likely tax reductions and subsidies that can affect balance sheets in the shorter term. In the oil business, the long emergency is now. New production for the long term is less critical than financial survival. More free money is probably the only thing that will increase production. Auto trading binary options questions light duty vehicle sales per year are about Step one is to replace the growth in sales entirely with electric cars.

World electric car sales are now— doubled in 2 years. So pessimistic estimate for electric cars to replace the ENTIRE new car market 15 years. Optimistic estrimate, 8 years. We should see an effect on oil demand well before that. It depends on the decline rate of the oil fields.

You have to add the decline rate to the growth of the new car market. This puts it in the range. If fracked fields drop off much, much faster, however, then it happens later. As you can see the first-order influence is the growth rate of electric car sales, which I believe is fundamentally driven by how fast the factories get built, which is mostly driven by China. And so rather hard to predict. Now for the rest of the Story.

Russia exports exceed Saudi in ? Technologies that allow people to use less oil for transportation. Recession, which means fewer people will need to drive to work and fewer will have money for recreational car and plane travel. Rising costs of gasoline, which will likely encourage less oil use. Water declines in farming areas, which will likely affect petroleum use in those areas.

These changes could be gradual, or they could happen suddenly, but as supplies decline, demand will also likely decline. Their oil and gas projections are below. Here is a chart comparing U.

LTO production projections from make money honest riches AEO issues from to Updated projections anticipate higher output inbut lower in vs. AEO Implied cumulative production in Crude oil production in the Reference case increases from current levels, then levels off around as tight oil development moves into less productive areas.

Projections of tight oil and shale gas production are uncertain because large portions of the known formations have relatively little or no production history, and extraction technologies and practices continue to evolve rapidly. Continued high rates of drilling technology improvement could increase well productivity and reduce drilling, completion, and production costs. In my opinion, it will turn out to be a lot. LTO production projections by the EIA, IEA and OPEC are actually among the most conservative.

The EIA expects relatively moderate growth over the next 5 years levelling off thereafter. And this is a recent forecast by Rystad Energy.

The population is now close to 7,, happy campers here on earth. You need big canvases for abstract absurdist art so everybody can see it. I have always wanted to project a giant image of the earth into space so you can see the whole earth from earth, better viewing at night, but still could be seen during the day.

Brace for the oil, food and financial crash of New scientific research suggests that the world faces an imminent oil crunch, which will trigger another financial crisis. Welcome to a new age of permanent economic recession driven by ongoing dependence on dirty, expensive, difficult oil… unless we choose a fundamentally different path.

The afore mentioned HSBC report: Supply constraints seem a distant prospect in the current oil market, but a return to balance in will nairobi exchange rates the World with severely limited spare capacity.

HSBC Video on oil supply peaking. They also stress the point that I have made for many years, that the measures taken to stall decline rates will only cause decline rates to be much higher once the giant fields do start to decline. The HSBC report was written in September ; and they have underestimated global demand growth inwhich was almost 1. They expect growth of 0. HSBC demand projections for 0. So, if HSBC supply forecast is correct, the market rebalancing and then supply crunch may occur even earlier.

The US is, by historical standards, overdue for another recession. And I think the recessions we get are getting more severe, so the next one could be substantial. CBs can flood money in to stop any such thing, and if they all do so no one currency is at risk relative to others.

Economy of Venezuela - Wikipedia

So there is no longer an inevitable moderation on oil consumption from recession. Bernanke did more harm than he could ever know. Jeffrey Brown and I had a discussion a year or two ago about terminology of decline rates. What happens if something else happens above ground like pipeline damage or whatever. Are the measures that were taken to stall decline rates as simple as infill drilling? In other words, these wells, for the most part, just accelerated production while adding very few incremental barrels.

SLG — there has been some addition of EOR over the last 10 years as well: Of these all but Oman are now seeing quite high decline rates, and Oman might soon. Saudi redeveloped their offshore fields and added artificial lift mostly ESPs on new wellheads in a lot of cases. From the numbers and some comments I have seen in-fill drilling in Russia, OPEC Middle East on shore and China did not drop off as the oil price fell, but might have even increased, although that looks to have reversed in China over the last year.

This was unexpected, I agree that it is unlikely to be repeated. Eventually oil will price itself out of the market as battery cost falls and EVs and plugin hybrids start to significantly reduce demand and start to reduce oil prices. This will accelerate decline rates as high cost projects will no longer be viable and most oil production will be onshore Russian and Persian Gulf oil which may deplete quickly as oil prices fall due to lack of demand.

By there will be very little demand for oil except possibly ships, air transport, and farm use, very little ground transport will use oil by that time in my view. There will never be any portable energy transportation source as cheap as oil. Of course coal is cheaper than oil, but you cannot have a coal burning car, or airplane. Batteries will definitely not be cheaper. If there is little demand for oil byas Dennis surmises, that will be because there is no oil to be demanded, or because what little oil there is available will be priced so high no one can afford it.

Only in fairy tale land is such absurd things believed. How comfortable it must be to live in a land where anything you believe strongly enough, can really be achieved.

You guys should wake up and smell the coffee. Oil works well for transportation designed to use it. But why will we be tied to those technologies? I think a transition to renewables will require changes in lifestyles, but saying that nothing can substitute for oil seems myopic. Hey, I did not say there can be no substitute for oil.

I said there will never be a portable transportation fuel as cheap as oil. Do you actually think batteries will be cheaper than oil? Have you renewable guys drifted so far from reality that you think batteries will be more economical than oil. I just gotta see your first battery powered 18 wheeler. Not that that there will never be one, but if there is you can be dammed sure the operating cost will be many times the cost of diesel.

Smoking is a lifestyle choice. Oil is the choice of life or death. When you say there will never be a portable transportation fuel as cheap as oil, what price do you have in mind?

Wind to create hydrogen to be used in fuel-cell powered vehicles. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Research — Wind-to-Hydrogen Project: That question is just a little absurd. I was speaking of the price of oil as the price was, and is, in the heyday of oil. Not in some future time when oil is so scarce that its cost is prohibitive.

The problem will be then, as it is now, affordable transportation fuel. If the cost is too high the economy goes into a recession. And if transportation fuel never gets affordable, then the recession becomes a depression and…. There are a few novelty hydrogen cars around. About half of ground transport fuel is used by personal transportation, it is easily foreseeable that liquid fuel used for personal ground transportation will be replaced by batteries by It might take longer for trucks, ships, and planes, but higher liquid fuel prices will lead to more rail, nuclear or wind powered ships and new air transport using biofuel, or hydrogen as a fuel.

If you wanted to pick a substance that presented that most challenges in terms of safety, materials and efficiency for storage and transport then hydrogen would be top of the list. The price of EVs will fall rapidly to about the same price as an ICEV by It is already cheaper to fuel a car with electricity vs gasoline or diesel. As far as coal and natural gas, those will also be driven from the market by cheaper wind and solar as costs fall.

Inthe automobile was a novelty. Most 75 year olds probably thought the idea that horses would be a niche form of transportation by was absurd. Fossil fuels will become more expensive as they deplete and they will be replaced by other forms of energy. Once peak fossil fuels is widely recognized as a problem, society will get to work to solve it and there are many solutions with the proper policy in my opinion. Things change over time. Think of all the things that have changed over your lifetime that your grandfather may have thought would never occur.

Cheap oil for transportation gave us a lot of unnecessary transportation. We never needed personal vehicles that got 8 miles to the gallon. And those vehicles can be replaced.

While there is a debate about whether fuel cell cars will become competitive with EVs, there are still some interesting experiments. Flush, then fill up: Japan taps sewage to fuel hydrogen-powered cars — LA Times: The station is working only 12 hours per day but already is making enough hydrogen to fill 65 cars daily — and that could grow to if all the biogas at the plant was harnessed.

In a comment on the non-petroleum thread I went into more depth as to how the worst case scenarios for Peak Oil have not happened yet! The way I see it, humanity is walking a fossil fuel enabled tightrope across the Peak Oil chasm with the Peak Oil being like a rat gnawing at the rope. If we ignore the rat and take our own sweet time to transition the chasm the rope will break and we are toast. If we move with urgency there is a chance we might make it. Only conventional oil provide an high net energy return toward economical activities, If you want high EROEI.

Tar sand, Venezuela and Canada, are net energy negative. Or they have and EROEI between 0 and 1. This is why Venezuela is in so much toubles, it cannot sell its oil on international market because it uses all its oil to produce oil. Conventional oil is now depleting fast and the human specie is now in a dire place.

The rate of depletion of conventional oil is what matters because it is the only one contributing energy to get things done. Natural gas or condensate from shale oil provides also a high net energy return because the refining process or purifying of natural gas is less energy intense then oil.

From what I could understand condensate production is also down, with it net energy available to produce economical activaties. As long as there is a need for liquid fuel, the net energy will matter less than the price of the energy relative to alternatives. A net energy analysis of the oil industry in isolation only would make sense in a World where the only source of energy was oil.

We do not live in such a world. Net energy and the law of conservation of energy is used into building and designing car engine and diesel. This site is full of losers like you with no science background, This was my last comment on this loser web site. I have a bachelors degree in Physics and studied Mechanical engineering for 3 years before switching to physics.

There is a great deal of energy used in the oil industry provided by electricity which can be produced with other sources besides oil coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro. For those who produce oil, the concern is profit not energy. Oil will be produced if it can be done so profitably regardless of net energy. As long as the net energy of all energy produced by society oil, natural gas, coal, hydro, wind, solar, and nuclear is greater than about 3 units of energy out for every unit of energy in, there is no problem.

Of course some forms of energy might allow an even lower ratio, because wind and solar have far lower losses than coal, oil, and natural gas as there are far fewer thermal losses most combustion is eliminated. The debt problem is not as big as it was inthere might be a gradual transition to EVs and plugin hybrids from to which may take some pressure off of demand for oil.

Traditional demand forecasts underestimate the speed that EVs will take market share from ICEV in part because they usually underestimate oil prices.

Goods transport will have switched to electrified rail with plugin hybrid trucks moving goods from rail to stores. Local busses will be electrified and long distance travel will be by rail or use rapid charging for vehicles like Tesla Supercharger network. Note that this transition creates jobs building and upgrading railways and building plugin vehicles along with wind, solar and hydro and an updated HVDC grid. Lots of jobs upgrading buildings as well to make them more energy efficient.

In addition EVs, rail, light rail, wind, solar, and hydro are more efficient so less energy is wasted as heat. The latest step being planned for So houses are progressively transformed to use less and less energy for heating via solar panels and heat pumpand use PV for electricity.

The most striking chart to me in the report showed the sudden decline in exploration success since For all the technology we have gone from finding oil once in five wells to once in twenty. That there was a decline was obvious — more money was spent on exploration than ever in to and discoveries kept falling until they hit multi-decade lows, but the actual numbers are much worse than I expected.

There was one new frontier success this year in the Dead Sea, but a few high profile. The response this year has been to gradually withdraw from frontier areas and concentrate on near field locations — there are only so many of them though. As prices rise will drilling return?

Arctic, BC Canada, Atlantic Coast USA. It will be interesting to see the results for this year. I think oil will be about the same as last year in quantity, but maybe with smaller average fields. Gas is likely to be down compared with recent years. Would be interesting to see estimates from other sources. The latest edition of the AAPG American Association of Petroleum Geologists Explorer just came out, and they provide a preliminary list of the largest discoveries ofas seen by IHS.

Only 7 of them have estimated recoverable reserves over mmboe. They also did not include the Permian Wolfcamp. In the northern GOM, a fair number of smaller discoveries were made, but all, if developed, are likely to be tiebacks to existing facilities. LLOG probably had the largest number of these discoveries. One play that I think industry will pursue in the northern deepwater GOM is an extension of the established Wilcox trend both to the north and west, where the petroleum systems are likely to be more gassy.

Both BHP and Chevron, and perhaps others, have fairly significant leaseholds in these areas. I have some doubts about that Alaska find. It was a redrill in an area that another company maybe Shell?

Wolfcamp has been developed for decades. In the chart below I compare my medium scenario with corrected data and slightly modified extraction rates from to In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama set the goal for the U. With only aboutplug-in electric cars sold in the United States by the end of DecemberSecretary of Energy, Ernest Moniz, said in January that the one million goal may not be reached until The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of ARRA also authorized federal tax credits for converted plug-ins, though the credit is lower than for new PEVs.

The new qualified plug-in electric vehicle credit phases out for a PEV manufacturer over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at leastqualifying vehicles from that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States. IIRC GM had said they could make 30, units the first year. Actual number sold 7, The Nissan actually sold more at 9, The thing is, the administration was basically alone on this target. The auto manufacturers were not on board.

In the six years since the target was announced, only one manufacturer has had a battery electric vehicle with a range greater than miles available. If you dropped that range to miles it would still be only on, at least up the end of Many of the vehicles on offer were compliance cars, sold to satisfy CARB zero emissions mandates and just enough were sold to satisfy the requirements. Another interesting one to watch is going to be the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the worlds fourth most popular plug in vehicle to go on sale in the US some time this year Mitsubishi Again Promises Outlander PHEV Will Launch In U.

Soon, Or By March At The Latest. I am as much of a free market guy as you are apt to find outside the Republican party, but I try to mix a little common sense in with my thinking about abstractions, such as free markets, socialism, democracy, etc. You eat the results of going on two centuries now of publicly funded research that has a hell of a lot to do with allowing one guy to produce food enough for a hundred or more.

Damned near all the infrastructure that allows you to eat California grown fresh fruits and vegetables all thru the winter was built with tax money. I have half a dozen neighbors who have nice lakes on their property that were built mostly with flood control money.

The big auto companies got their startnearly all of them, fifty to a hundred years ago, when things were easier, in terms of doing as you please, dumping waste, getting permits, you name it. Now things are tougher, for people trying to break into such industries, and new competition needs some HELP if there is to BE any new competition, on a timely basis. Judging by your comments here, I think maybe you believe the same. And any fool knows that when you reduce the sale of a commodity good, except by withholding it from the market via a monopoly or cartel, the price of it falls.

That will mean the diesel fuel I use to grow YOUR food will be cheaper, and since my industry is a VICIOUSLY competitive industry, every dime I save as a producer, long term, is passed on as a saving to you, as a consumer.

My personal guess, for what it is worth, is that EVERY DIME we spend NOW on subsidizing renewable energy, electric vehicles, energy efficiency, conservation of energy and materials, etc, will return us a HANDSOME profit, over the next few decades, by way of depressing the price of fossil fuels and other depleting resources such as iron, aluminum, phosphate rock, a hundred more……….

The subsidy question IS one that really does have two equally defensible sides, depending on the good or service in question. So called conservatives are generally big supporters of free markets, and most of them, the working type, are sincere in their beliefs and support for the concept.

But the rich ones are mostly just a bunch of damned old hypocrites, who are VERY glad for any and every obstacle the government throws in the path of any new competitor, or any product that might displace their own product.

You really can get a doctorate in dozens of important fields without ever taking even ONE real course in just ONE hard science. Millions of people have done so, and many thousands more do so every year. OK, you wanted to know. But it does exist and others have analyzed. The reason is fundamentally very simple: With 0 operating cost, they lose nothing by bidding their energy in at 0 price.

If they can bid slightly above that, they make an incremental profit. Obviously more stable pricing can be gained in long-term contracts. Solar and wind farms can afford to make any long term contract above their LCOE. But something has to be done about windless nights, and about short peaks in demand. Hydro with storage is obvious. Nighttime remains an issue, and will do so until batteries are cheaper. So now one more important point. As solar and wind penetration gets higher, it becomes more common for there to be serious overproduction on the grid.

Which they do, and most systems now are actually overbuilt with more noontime production than they can run through the inverters. So they build them anyway, and they are building them anyway. Now, batteries are destroying the economics of peaker plants. If solar and wind are pumping out lots most of the time, then baseload becomes useless. This can be seen perfectly obviously in headlines around the world on Bloomberg and other news sites.

The few islands still using oil to generate electricity are building solar and batteries ASAP even at prices which are really too high for the mainland to adopt. The effect on natural gas prices is truly complicated because the natural gas market is very complicated compared to the coal or oil markets.

Coal is produced intentionally and used for two things: Which use two different sorts of coal. Oil is produced intentionally and used primarily for one thing: The worsening of oil wells, with the GOR going up, and the very high GOR of fracked wells, along with the craze for gas fracking which was caused by very high natgas prices a few years ago, has caused a long-running glut in US natgas.

This has made it cheap which has driven it into much heavier use for electricity generation. If its price goes up, it will largely disappear from electricity generation in favor of new solar and wind farms, which will of course bring the price back down.

There is also a price at which it becomes cheaper to heat with electricity, which will of course bring the price back down. The Guano Act was about the same. Grace did the job of moving goods down and around the southern Atlantic. How to deal with worries about stranded assets The Economist: Probably they already have, except for airplanes. Which these guys do.

A tricky time for oil producers The Economist: But they are also aware that if demand goes into long-term decline, those with the cheapest oil will survive longest. It intends to concentrate on what it sees as the cheapest deepwater reserves in places like Brazil where investments can be recouped within that time frame. It may also cut oil exploration. Total, too, is hoping to find low-cost oil. It has bought a small stake in a year oil concession near Abu Dhabi, in the expectation that Gulf oil will always be cheap.

Total is going for the ultra-cheap oil in hopes of being the last survivor. Notably, Total is also the only oil company with a significant investment in renewables as the majority owner of SunPower. But while output has nudged up, and operating companies have largely kept bankruptcy at bay, investment has plummeted since oil prices crashed in mid The International Energy Agency expects UK oil production to resume declining in We could get one serious oil price spike before the terminal decline.

Geological Survey estimated volumes of technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources resulting from reserve growth for discovered fields outside the United States that have reported in-place oil and gas volumes of million barrels of oil equivalent or greater. The mean volumes of reserve growth were estimated at billion barrels of crude oil; 1, trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and 16 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. The recently developed USGS method to assess reserve growth was used to estimate technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas volumes that have the potential to be added to reserves in discovered conventional accumulations under proven technology currently in practice within the trend or play, or which can reasonably be extrapolated from geologically similar trends or plays.

These estimates do not assume or include estimates based on the application of speculative future technologies. The assessment methodology estimates future potential additions to reserves using current technology, but not necessarily current economics. No time period was assumed for the estimated reserve growth volumes in this report to take place.

Identified unconventional continuous oil and gas accumulations, such as shale gas, tight gas, tight oil, and tar sands, were excluded from this assessment of reserve growth.

The USGS assesses unconventional, technically recoverable oil and gas resources using a methodology that is different from that used to assess conventional resources. Reserve growth is the increase in estimated volumes of oil and natural gas that might be recovered from existing fields and reservoirs through time. Most reserve growth results from delineation of new reservoirs, field extensions, or enhanced recovery techniques that improve efficiency; or from recalculation of reserves due to changing economic and operating conditions.

Many accumulations show no growth of reserves and many reserve volumes shrink, however. Reserve growth is defined as increases in successive estimates of recoverable quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in discovered conventional accumulations. Reserve growth can be grouped into three activities: Crude Oil Endowment Outside of the United States: This can add significant volumes of incremental barrels.

Large part of reserve additions in the past several years was due to additions in discovered fields rather than new discoveries. OPEC cuts- price goes up, USA increases- price goes down. Or maybe Gold-in-sacks is just pumping their investment.

Trump May Not Like Alternative Energy, but Investors Should — The New York Times. Notice from that article: This is a very big deal. Obama and his aides, but now it will work to the benefit of environmental advocates.

They have already persuaded more than half the states to adopt mandates on renewable energy. Efforts to roll those back have largely failed, with the latest development coming only last week, when Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, a Republican, vetoed a rollback bill. Trump pushes for an early end to the subsidies, he will find that renewable energy has friends in the Republican Party. Topping that list is Charles E.

Grassley, the senior senator from Iowa. That state — all-important in presidential politics, let us remember — will soon be getting 40 percent of its electricity from wind power. Peak Oil Barrel The Reported Death of Peak Oil Has Been Greatly Exaggerated Skip to content. Home Energy and Human Evolution Of Fossil Fuels and Human Destiny OPEC Charts The Competitive Exclusion Principle The Grand Illusion What is Peak Oil? World Crude Oil Exports World Oil Yearly Production Charts.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged crude oilIEAOil Market Reportoil shock modelOPECPeak OilWorld Oil Production. Hi Dennis, Happy New Year. Note the figures in the legend give the overall production in the years shown on the chart. Hi George, When oil prices rise in and there will be increased output from Russia and OPEC, in my view.

Hi George, There are combined cuts of 1. US lto can ramp up quickly with high oil prices. Hi George, I do not have information on specific fields and developments. Hi Survivalist, The Extra Heavy XH Oil Scenario is in the chart below. A little late, but, just-viewed and recommended … The Overnighters Desperate, broken men chase their dreams and run from their demons in the North Dakota oil fields.

GF has his head screwed on straight and properly torqued down. Efficiency and quality can be world class bargains. This one little bit of biz justified my DSL connection for an entire month. But it will never arrive, BEVs will take over long before that. Then copies turn up in the mid-range stores for mid-range prices. And eventually similar products turn up in the mass market stores for very little money.

It must be pretty special, you mentioned it twice. Please no replies, see below.

I will copy some of this comment in the non petroleum thread. There is no contradiction. Your missing variable is time! This is why you have market cycles. Hi Ron, The cuts will be temporary for the first 6 months ofthen output will increase. Silicon Valley Observer says: By your way of thinking the famine will be a substitute. Way to put a shine on a turd.

Here are a couple of more articles on how much waste goes on in the US economy. Opower The Economic and Environmental Costs of Wasted Food — The New York Times: IEA Oil Market Report OECD commercial inventories fell in October for the third month in a row.