Msnbc stock market crash
How big of a drop? You get the idea. A Trump victory would be "America's Brexit. Almost everyone on Wall Street currently predicts Hillary Clinton will win the White House. A Trump triumph would likely cause investors to flee stocks to the safety of gold and bonds. Trump is the king of unpredictability something Wall Street hates , and he's campaigned on an anti-trade agenda , which wouldn't be good for big business.
Don't expect a big rally, warns Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group. In fact, markets might take a dip then too.
Investors really want Clinton to win now. First of all, the market is already pricing in a Clinton win. The gains have already happened. In addition to stocks, other market metrics like the Mexican peso also rallied as Trump's chances dimmed.
Jack Welch: Trump's Impeachment Would Crush the Stock Market
But after the third debate -- one which many believe Clinton won decisively -- stocks barely budged. It's central banks and ultra low interest rates. That said, investors, like everyone else in the world, will be watching what happens on Election Day. As the results roll in that evening and possibly into the next morning , investors could still get unnerved, even if Clinton wins. Do the Democrats win back the Senate?
What about the House of Representatives? The reason Wall Street really wants Clinton to win is because a she's a known quantity and b investors believe it's important for a Republican-controlled Senate and House to keep a Democratic President in check.
But as Clinton surges in the polls , there's a growing fear that the Senate -- and even the House -- could flip if voters come out strongly for the Democrats. That would make it easier for more liberal and anti-Wall Street senators like Elizabeth Warren to wield greater influence on taxes, regulation and spending priorities.
But what would really scare Wall Street is if the House also tips to the Democrats. Market focused on Senate. A repeat of the Obama market drop. The other red flag for investors is what happened in Barack Obama was widely expected to defeat Republican John McCain.
Bespoke Investment Group looked at how the U. What they found was this: All the "market metrics" CNNMoney has been tracking in October now point to a Clinton victory -- except one. But be weary of reading a Clinton win as a boost to stocks, at least in the short term.
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